2.24 Exit poll: Edison Research gathered exit poll results from several sources for the Wisconsin recall election of Scott Walker. They found that 57% of the respondents voted in favor of Scott Walker. Additionally, they estimated that of those who did vote in favor for Scott Walker, 33% had a college degree, while 45% of those who voted against Scott Walker had a college degree. Suppose we randomly sampled a person who participated in the exit poll and found that he had a college degree. What is the probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker? (please round to 4 decimal places)

0.4929 = 49.29% probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker

Step-by-step explanation:

Bayes Theorem:

Two events, A and B.

In which P(B|A) is the probability of B happening when A has happened and P(A|B) is the probability of A happening when B has happened.

In this question:

Event A: Having a college degree.

Event B: Voting for Scott Walker.

They found that 57% of the respondents voted in favor of Scott Walker.

This means that

Additionally, they estimated that of those who did vote in favor for Scott Walker, 33% had a college degree

This means that

Probability of having a college degree.

33% of those who voted for Scott Walker(57%).

45% of those who voted against Scott Walker(100 - 57 = 43%). So

What is the probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker?

0.4929 = 49.29% probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker

28

step-by-step explanation:

8+8+6+6