(valid answers only, waste my time and i'll waste yours and report you. take someone else's opportunity to get points and my time in getting and you'll be reported. only answer if you know the answer.)

OK lets see this is tough first you have to dig up some information from the past and see what years he was correct. Lets say its been 10 years and hes been correct only 40% of the time. that s 4 years meaning that every ten years he is correct 4 years out of ten . Most likely its right, wrong,wrong,right,right, wrong, wrong,wrong,right,wrong. So lets say in 100 years his prediction is only right 40 years. So he might get it right in the next three years by about 4.38% but if it was up to statistics, Its a big not. 
P:s. : Don't trust a ground hog just common sense.

Hope i can you!