A pharmaceutical company is testing the effectiveness of a new drug for pancreatis patients. Out of 150 volunteers who suffer from pancreatitis, 75 are given the drug and 75 a placebo. After 4 weeks, the volunteers are asked whether they noticed any improvement. The results are shown: Received drug: 57 improved, 18 no improvement
Received placebo: 24 improved, 51 no improvement
Totals: 81 improved, 69 no improvement
What is the probability that a volunteer reported improvement in symptoms given that he received the drug?
What is the probability that a volunteer received the placebo, given that he or she did not report a noticeable improvement in symptoms?
What should the company do? Is there enough data to support production and distribution of the drug as an effective way to improve the symptoms of pancreatis?