An insurance company believe that people can be divided into two classes those that are accident prone and those that are not. Their statistics shows that an accident prone person will have an accident at some time within a fixed one year period with probability 0.4, where as this probability decreases to 0.2 for a non accident known person if we assume that 30% of the population is accident prone what is the probability that a new policy holder will have an accident within a year of purchasing a policy.