A firm’s marketing manager believes that total sales for next year will follow the normal distribution, with a mean of $3.2 million and a standard deviation of $250,000. Determine the sales level that has only a 3% chance of being exceeded next year.

The sales level that has only a 3% chance of being exceeded next year is $3.67 million.

Step-by-step explanation:

When the distribution is normal, we use the z-score formula.

In a set with mean and standard deviation , the zscore of a measure X is given by:

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

In this question, we have that:

In millions of dollars,

Determine the sales level that has only a 3% chance of being exceeded next year.

This is the 100 - 3 = 97th percentile, which is X when Z has a pvalue of 0.97. So X when Z = 1.88.

The sales level that has only a 3% chance of being exceeded next year is $3.67 million.

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