In Zedland, opinion polls were conducted to find out the level of support for the President in the forthcoming election. Four newspaper publishers did separate nationwide polls. The results for the four newspaper polls are shown below:

Newspaper 1:36.5% (poll conducted on January 6, with a sample of 500 randomly selected citizens with voting rights)

Newspaper 2:41.0% (poll conducted on January 20, with a sample of 500 randomly selected citizens with voting rights)

Newspaper 3:39.0% (poll conducted on January 20, with a sample of 1000 randomly selected citizens with voting rights)

Newspaper 4:44.5% (poll conducted on January 20, with 1000 readers phoning in to vote).

Which newspaper's result is likely to be the best for predicting the level of support for the President if the election is held on January 25?

Newspaper 3's result is likely to be the best for predicting the level of support for the President if the election is held on January 25.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question aimed to investigate which newspaper's result of a poll of prospective voters that favour the curremt president with the polls done in different ways, at different dates and with different approaches.

Taking each newspaper's poll one at a time,

Newspaper 1:36.5% (poll conducted on January 6, with a sample of 500 randomly selected citizens with voting rights)

This newspaper's sampling approach is proper (the random sampling of selected citizens gives the newspaper the chance to randomize this process as much as possible to obtain a great enough estimate of the population proportion), with a sample size of 500, the only problem is that the poll was carried out on Jan 6th. That's too long a time from Jan 25th. A lot can happen in that time and away opinions. So, this poll isn't likely to be the most accurate.

Newspaper 2:41.0% (poll conducted on January 20, with a sample of 500 randomly selected citizens with voting rights)

Great sampling approach, 500 sample size; poll done on the 20th of January, almost perfect if not that there's another newspaper that uses a larger sample size. A larger sample size is more likely to capture the population's opinions more.

Newspaper 3:39.0% (poll conducted on January 20, with a sample of 1000 randomly selected citizens with voting rights)

Newspaper 3 uses a great sampling approach, 1000 sample size; poll done on the 20th of January, this is the most perfect poll. It uses a larger sample size. A larger sample size is more likely to capture the opinion of the population more.

Newspaper 4:44.5% (poll conducted on January 20, with 1000 readers phoning in to vote).

Great sample size, with popl done on Jam 20th too, bit the sampling method leaves too much room for bias. The newspaper has no control over the spread of the 1000 readers that call in. For all we know, a large fraction of the callers can all call from one particular district, thereby skewing the data obtained.

It is now evident why newspaper 3's result is likely to be the best for predicting the level of support for the President if the election is held on January 25.

Hope this Helps!!!