Math problem Just before a referendum on a school budget, a local newspaper polls 400 voters in an attempt to predict whether the budget will pass. Suppose that the budget actually has the support of 52% of the voters. What’s the probability the newspaper’s sample will lead them to predict defeat? Be sure to verify that the assumptions and conditions necessary for your analysis are

The conditions necessary for the analysis are met.

The probability the newspaper’s sample will lead them to predict defeat is 0.7881

Step-by-step explanation:

We are given;

population proportion; μ = 52% = 0.52

Sample size;n = 400

The conditions are;

10% conditon: sample size is less than 10% of the population size

Success or failure condition; np = 400 x 0.52 = 208 and n(1 - p) = 400(1 - 0.52) = 192.

Both values are greater than 10

Randomization condition; we assume that the voters were randomly selected.

So the conditions are met.

Now, the standard deviation is gotten from;

σ = √((p(1 - p)/n)

where;

p is the population proportion

n is the sample size

σ is standard deviation

Thus;

σ = √((0.52(1 - 0.52)/400)

σ = √((0.52(0.48)/400)

σ = 0.025

Now to find the z-value, we'll use;

P(p^ > 0.5) = P(z > (x - μ)/σ)

Thus;

P(p^ > 0.5) = P(z > (0.5 - 0.52)/0.025)

This gives;

P(p^ > 0.5) = P(z > - 0.8)

This gives;

P(p^ > 0.5) = 1 - P(z < -0.8)

From the table attached we have a z value of 0.21186

Thus;

P(p^ > 0.5) = 1 - 0.21186 = 0.7881

Thus, the probability the newspaper’s sample will lead them to predict defeat is 0.7871

The probability, P that the newspaper's sample will lead them to predict defeat is  0.21186

Step-by-step explanation:

Here we have

p = 52%, therefore np = 208 Voters

q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.52 = 0.48

nq = 0.48×400 = 192 Voters

Therefore, as np and nq are both > 10 the conditions for approximation to normality are met

We therefore have

μ = 0.52 and

σ =

The z score is therefore;

The probability the newspaper's sample will lead them to predict defeat is given by P(Z < -0.8) = 0.21186.

i think it is 18

step-by-step explanation: