Consider the following time series data.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.

c. Use ? ? 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.

d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using ? ? 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for ? ?0.2.