Mary is taking a test where she hears a random list of numbers like "7 . . 4 . . 9 . . 3." as soon as the reader is done reading the list of numbers, mary is asked to recite the numbers in the correct order. mary is having her tested.

Transplant operations have become routine. one common transplant operation is for kidneys. the most dangerous aspect of the procedure is the possibility that the body may reject the new organ. there are several new drugs available for such circumstances and the earlier the drug is administered, the higher the probability of averting rejection. the new england journal of medicine recently reported the development of a new urine test to detect early warning signs that the body is rejecting a transplanted kidney. however, like most other tests, the new test is not perfect. in fact, 20% of negative tests and 10% of positive tests prove to be incorrect. physicians know that in about 33% of kidney transplants the body tries to reject the organ. if the new test has a positive result (indicating early warning of rejection), what is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the kidney?