While some say winter will be six weeks longer thanks to the groundhog, no one really knows. One day it may
be snowing, and the next it may be sunny and warm
Every day is different and, while we are able to see
approaching hurricanes using radar, the weather will
forever go to the beat of its own drum?

paine is arguying that they had tried everything before coming to the conclusion that they needed to fight for their freedom.

argument: "every quiet method for peace hath been ineffectual."

claim 1: "our prayers have been rejected with disdain; and only tended to convince us, that nothing flatters vanity, or confirms obstinacy in kings more than repeated petitioning and nothing hath contributed more than that very measure to make the kings of europe absolute."

claim 2: "wherefore, since nothing but blows will do, for god’s sake, let us come to a final separation, and not leave the next generation to be cutting throats, under the violated unmeaning names of parent and child."

the anecdote makes readers feel sorry for the man’s lack of heritage, then reminds readers that the man has an equally valuable heritage.