Fred is a party guy. His friends generally think well of him and typically count on him to be the life of the party. Lately, however, Fred has not been invited to very many parties. His friends have not told him why and they avoid him whenever possible, but they do talk among themselves. They believe Fred is drinking too much since he has started getting in trouble with the law. When a friend approaches Fred about having his name in the paper related to an alcohol-related arrest, Fred becomes very defensive and storms out of the room, claiming it was a "set up" by his ex, and then he heads for the local bar down the street. What stage is Fred in when it comes to his drinking?