Consider relative purchasing power parity (PPP) and remember the consumer price index (CPI) provides the price level in a country at any point in time. Assume CPI in the US is 165 in 2010 and 200 in 2015, and CPI in Canada is 170 in 2010 and 220 in 2015 (with base year as 2000). If the spot exchange rate was 0.7640 USD/CAD in 2010, what is it in 2015 if relative PPP holds

0.7156 USD/CAD

Explanation:

Relationship between relative PPP and inflation rates can be expressed as given below:

S(1)/S(0) = (1+I(y)) / (1+I(x))(1)

==> S(0) = spot exchange rate at the beginning of the time period

==> S(1)  = spot exchange rate at the end of the time period

==> I(y) = expected inflation rate for country y, which is foreign country

==> I(x) = expected inflation rate for country x, which is domestic country.

Here, assumes that the US is a foreign country and Canada is domestic country

I(y) = (200/165) - 1 = 21.21%

I(x) = (220/170) - 1 = 29.41%

On putting the values of I(x) and I(y) in the first equation, we get:

S(1)/0.764 = (1+0.2121) / (1+0.2941)

S(1)/0.764 = 0.9366354996

S(1) = 0.764*0.936635

S(1) = 0.7156 USD/CAD

If relative PPP holds, the spot exchange rate in 2015 will be 0.7156 USD/CAD

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