Denver Mart is considering a project with a life of 5 years and an initial cost of $136,000. The discount rate is 11 percent. The firm expects to sell 2,200 units a year with a cash flow per unit of $26. The firm will have the option to abandon this project after 3 years at which time it expects it could sell the project for $48,000. The firm is interested in knowing how the project will perform if the sales forecast for Years 4 and 5 of the project are revised such that there is a probability of 50 percent that the sales will be 1,000 units and a probability of 50 percent they will be 2,500 units a year. What is the net present value of this project given your sales forecasts?

Denver Mart

The net present value of this project given the sales forecasts is:

= $98,400.40

Explanation:

a) Data and Calculations:

Project's estimated life = 5 years

Initial project cost = $136,000

Discount rate = 11%

Initial estimated sales = 2,200 at $26

Revenue in years 1, 2, and 3 each = 2,200 * $26 = $57,200

Sales forecast of Year 4 and 5 revised to 1,750 units

Probability of 1,000 * 50% = 500

Probability of 2,500 * 50% 1,250

Total sales forecast = 1,750 units

Revenue in years 4 and 5 each =  1,750 * $26 = $45,500

Present value of revenue:

Year 1, 2, and 3 = $57,200 * Annuity factor

= $57,200 * 3.102 = $177,434.40

Year 4, PV = $45,500 * 0.659 = $29,984.50

Year 5, PV = $45,500 * 0.593 = $26,9815

Year 1 to 5 added =   $234,400.40

Present value of revenue = $234,400.40

Present value of costs =        136,000.00

Net present value =              $98,400.40