Jonas is the marketing manager in a firm that sells air pollution control systems to the coal-fired power industry. His business is highly competitive, with existing rivalries and new players. Coal-fired power plants are being shut down in favor of substitute forms of energy, e. g., wind and natural gas. Thus, new project opportunities in coal-fired power plants are rare. His clients (electric utility companies) have many choices of providers and technologies. Jonas's firm has long-term pricing agreements with its equipment suppliers, so Jonas knows what external costs his firm will incur on potential new projects. The competitive force that appears to represent the lowest risk to Jonas's firm is