An hmo does a follow-up study on 13641364 randomly selected patients given a flu shot. none of these people became seriously ill with the flu. the study concludes that all hmo patients be urged to get a flu shot in order to prevent a serious case of the flu.

This conclusion is based on a method of reasoning, called inductive reasoning. According to inductive reasoning, making specific observations can help us derive general conclusions. However, these conclusions are probable and not, in any case, the absolute truth. In this example, multiple observations (randomly selected people) were all true (none of the participants became seriously ill by the flu). These observations were combined to secure a specific conclusion (a flu shot prevents every case of flu).