To what extent can very large earthquakes be predicted

Scientists have tried lots of different ways of predicting earthquakes, but none have been successful. They haven't been able to find a signal for earthquakes( there is no obvious sign to say that an earthquake is coming very soon). They do have a pretty good idea of where an earthquake is most likely to hit, but they still can't predict exactly when it will happen.

However, the probability of a future earthquake can be calculated, based on scientific data. Scientists estimate that the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the San Francisco Bay area over the next 30 years is 67%.

emerging idea only occurs as a raw idea that could appear out of nowhere. meanwhile, to reach scientific consensus , that idea must be structured and tested over and over again through various experiments. the scientific consensus transforms the raw idea into idea that is more reliable through the process of scientific elimination.