A YouGov poll shows Elizabeth Warren at 14% and Bernie Sanders at 13%, while a Monmouth University poll shows Warren at 15% and Sanders at 14%. The margin of error for both polls is 3%. How do we best interpret this data? 1) Warren is clearly ahead since two polls show she leads by 1%
2) the poll must be flawed because Sanders has more support, obviously
3) Sanders will win because Warren will fall victim to the gender version of the ‘Bradley Effect
4) the two are statistically tied, as the results are within the margin of error