Module 4 discusses common errors in thinking, such as hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the tendency to perceive order in random events. Describe hindsight bias and overconfidence, and provide examples of each.

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Explanation:

Hindsight bias refers to a psychological phenomenon whereby an individual is convinced that he or she predicted an event accurately before it occurred. This eventually leads to overconfidence in the ability of the person to forecast other future events. An example is when one attends a football game and insist that he or she knew that a certain team will win beforehand.

Overconfidence bias is when a person has more confidence than what one should objectively have with regards to the precision of the forecast and the degree of certainty that the prediction will be correct. An example is someone who believes that he has a great sense of direction that's better than it actually is and such person goes on a long journey without a map due to his overconfidence.

i do agree with robert moses’ statements about wiping out cities that are an “impediment to new growth”. in order to have a positive community, the city must continue to grow either in terms of size or economics. therefore wiping out cities that restrict growth benefits the overall society and all the people living in it. similar to a social contract, i believe that if a person was to live in a community they must sacrifice some of their rights, in this case property, for the overall good of the people. as long as these people living in the cities are reimbursed and the purpose of wiping out the cities is to serve the public, there is no problem with robert moses’ core idea.

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